How Close Did We Come to Yet Another Electoral College Meltdown in 2020?
The Answer -- Frighteningly Close
Most of our readers are aware of the Electoral College’s recent misfires – when a Presidential candidate wins the Electoral College but loses the popular vote – in 2000 and 2016. But how close did we come to yet another misfire in 2020?
Frighteningly close. Let’s review.
The 2020 Presidential election saw a record-breaking voter turnout, despite taking place during the COVID-19 pandemic. Slightly more than 158.4 million votes were cast in the Presidential race between Donald J. Trump [R] and Joseph R. Biden [D], or 66 percent of the eligible voter pool. Biden won the popular vote by 7 million – the largest percentage of the popular vote of any challenger since 1932. (By contrast, Hillary R. Clinton received 2.9 million more votes than Trump in 2016 but lost the Electoral College.) In 2020, Biden won the Electoral College 306-232:
And yet had Trump managed to sway a mere 43,000 votes (out of 158.4 million votes cast!) in three key swing states – Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, representing a total of 37 electoral votes – the Electoral College would have deadlocked 269-269, throwing the election to the House of Representatives as the Constitution prescribes.
Remember, in this scenario each state’s delegation receives only one single vote to cast for a Presidential candidate. With the Republican party controlling the majority of state legislatures, Trump could have conceivably won the election.
Add a single additional Congressional district for Trump – say the 2nd Congressional district in Nebraska (metropolitan Omaha) – Trump would have won the Electoral College, 270-269, despite having 7 million fewer votes.
Think about it – had only 65,000 votes out of a record-breaking 158.4 million votes cast (or 0.04 percent of the total) – gone the other way, the United States once again would have had a minority President. A minority President having 7 million fewer votes. This is why MSNBC’s Chris Hayes calls the Electoral College a “ticking time bomb for democracy.” Says Hayes, “If we do not change it, it will absolutely cause some kind of constitutional crisis and democratic breakdown. I am sure of that.”
Let’s look at these numbers across the three swing states and the Nebraska 2nd Congressional district a little more closely. These are the actual numbers from each jurisdiction that could have swung the election toward Trump:
This is why, following the election, Trump was recorded as pressuring the Georgia Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger, to “find 11,780 additional votes.” He knew — or more likely his advisors told him — that this number would tip Georgia from “blue” to “red.”
Ever wonder why the 2020 election-was-stolen camp (“Stop the Steal!”) has been getting so much traction? It’s quite possible that the mere existence of the Electoral College has sown doubt in people’s minds in the country’s ability to conduct a fair and drama-free Presidential election. Chris Hayes suggests “that the very existence of the Electoral College made the public more susceptible to Trump’s efforts to subvert democracy.”
How much longer are we willing to tolerate this 18th century relic that dangerously distorts our 21st century politics?
Join our growing movement at The National Vote. Share this post with interested family members, friends, and coworkers. Our goal is to expand our base of advocates across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. As our movement grows, we’ll be able to lobby our state and Congressional representatives that it’s time to retire the Electoral College once and for all.
Want to take action right now? Our website contains action items, such as contacting your local Member of Congress or local media outreach (including social media). As the 2022 midterm elections approach, ask your local candidate where he or she stands on abolishing the Electoral College.
A bill introduced in the current session of Congress would abolish the Electoral College through an amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Consider contacting the nine co-sponsors of this bill and thank them for their leadership. Here’s the list.
Thank you for helping to strengthen American democracy.
*Nebraska (along with Maine) allocates its electoral votes by Congressional district, as opposed to the usual winner-take-all mechanism practiced by the other states.